
Efficient Markets - Picking Winners By Past Performance
In the years between 2009 and 2019, if you picked only the top 25% of funds in the previous 5 years, only 21% of global equity funds went on to continue to outperform, and 29% of global fixed income funds went on to outperform. That means if you simply picked the previous winner, expecting it to continue to be a winner in the future, you had basically a random outcome over the next 5 years.