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November Client Letter - Stay Optimistic

Although winter has arrived (early), the major global equity markets continue to stay hot in 2019.  Only 11 months ago, stocks were falling rapidly and most prognosticators were calling for even more trouble for investors in 2019. However, most major equity markets in 2019 have rebounded, recovering their setbacks in 2018 and pushing forward to new highs. 

I am not a believer that markets can be timed or forecasted consistently by anyone.  But, when I open the newspaper or read news online - I am always struck by the negative tone that the media tends to take when talking about investments and markets.  In reality, equity markets go up more often than they go down.

According to the Centre for Research in Security Prices, about 75% of all 1 year periods measured since 1926 produced positive returns for Canadian, US, and International stock markets.  More simply, historically stocks only go down one year for every 3 years they are up.  Does that surprise you?  You couldn't be blamed if it did, given the fearful messages we receive every day about markets and investing.

Brian Wesbury is one of my favorite economists and he produces a weekly newsletter and video blog that I watch regularly.  I've included his most recent video below.  Now, I don't believe that Brian knows the future direction of the market (nobody does), but I find Brian's positive outlook refreshing - mostly because it seems to be so rare these days.  And, with a 3/4 chance that markets will move in a positive direction each year (historically speaking), I think Brian stands to be right far more often than his contemporaries.

I wish you a healthy and safe end to the month of November, and as always, thank you for your trust.  I'm here to answer any questions you have.

Sincerely,

Mark

Content here is for informational purposes only.  Please consult with your legal, tax, and investment professionals before making any decisions based on this material.  Thank you.